Amateur Forecast Blog Achieves 50% Accuracy Rate, Celebrates

An amateur weather forecasting blog has achieved a verified 50% accuracy rate over its first year of operation, a result its author has celebrated as proof that his self-developed forecasting methodology is working. The blog, "Gary's Weather Corner," run by retired insurance adjustor Gary Persistence, publishes daily forecasts for the greater Topeka, Kansas, metropolitan area. A year-end audit conducted by Gary himself found that 183 of his 365 daily forecasts were "substantially correct," a rate he has posted proudly on the blog's header. "Fifty percent in year one," Persistence wrote in his annual review post. "That's a foundation to build on. Rome wasn't built in a day, and neither is a forecast model." Professional meteorologists have noted that 50% accuracy is approximately the rate one would achieve by randomly guessing between two outcomes — rain or no rain — for each day. "A coin would perform comparably," observed Dr. Amanda Climatology of the University of Oklahoma's School of Meteorology. "The NWS achieves approximately 80-85% accuracy on one-day forecasts. Fifty percent is not a methodology. It's chance." Persistence disputes this characterization, noting that his forecasts involve more nuance than a binary rain/no-rain prediction. "I forecast temperature, precipitation type, wind direction, and cloud cover," he explained. "Getting all of those right is harder than it looks. Some days I nail the temperature but miss the wind. Some days I get the precipitation but the temperature is off. Fifty percent across all variables is respectable." Persistence's methodology, which he has documented in a series of blog posts, involves checking the pressure trend on his barometer, looking at the sky, consulting what he calls his "joint almanac" (a 1987 Farmers' Almanac glued to a 2003 Old Farmer's Almanac), and "going with my gut." His readership has grown to 23 regular visitors, most of whom he suspects are family members. "My daughter reads it every day," Persistence noted. "She says it's funnier than the NWS, which I take as a compliment."