Forecast Model Predicts Sunny Skies, Meteorologist Steps Outside To Check Anyway

A National Weather Service meteorologist has admitted that he regularly steps outside to visually confirm the forecast produced by a multi-billion-dollar ensemble of weather prediction models, satellite imagery, and upper-air observations. Meteorologist Dale Barometer, 43, who has worked at the NWS forecast office in Norman, Oklahoma, for fourteen years, says the habit began early in his career and has only intensified as the models have improved. "The GFS says clear skies. The ECMWF says clear skies. The NAM says clear skies. The HRRR says clear skies," Barometer explained, standing in the parking lot of the forecast office and looking up. "I also say clear skies, because I can see the sun. We're all in agreement." Barometer acknowledges that his visual observation adds no predictive value beyond what the models already provide. "I know that," he said. "The models assimilate data from thousands of surface stations, radiosondes, aircraft observations, and six geostationary satellites. My observation is one man squinting at the troposphere from a parking lot in Oklahoma. And yet." The habit reportedly intensifies during severe weather season, when Barometer will check the sky multiple times per shift despite having access to real-time dual-polarization radar data with a spatial resolution of one kilometer. "There was a supercell in 2019 that the models handled perfectly," Barometer recalled. "I watched it develop on radar exactly where the models said it would, at exactly the time they predicted. I still went outside and looked west. It was right there. I felt better having seen it with my eyes." Barometer's supervisor has described the behavior as "universal among forecasters" and noted that the forecast office's parking lot is among the most frequently visited locations in the building. "We trust the models," the supervisor confirmed. "We also trust the sky. The sky has a longer track record."